Regulated perpetual futures are arriving in the United States, and executives at major crypto exchanges believe the rollout will follow a familiar adoption pattern. Sophisticated traders will lead the charge, followed gradually by institutional investors and asset managers who need time to navigate governance requirements, according to John Palmer, head of derivatives at Kraken.
The comparison to spot bitcoin ETFs is instructive. When those products launched in January 2024, retail investors and sophisticated traders entered quickly, while traditional asset managers took months to build out compliance frameworks and conduct due diligence. Palmer expects the same trajectory for perpetual futures, a product that has long dominated offshore crypto trading venues but remained largely inaccessible to U.S. traders due to regulatory restrictions.
“When I think about those participants in trading, typically the first movers are going to be the ones that are more sophisticated in nature,” Palmer said in an interview. “So they’re either already connected to exchanges and trading themselves in a proprietary manner.”
Perpetual futures, or perps, allow traders to maintain leveraged positions indefinitely without expiration dates, unlike traditional futures contracts that must eventually be rolled into new contracts. Globally, perps account for the vast majority of crypto derivatives volume, yet U.S. traders have historically had limited access. This follows a pattern seen in related coverage of Coinbase’s launch of pre-IPO perpetual futures, which similarly aimed to bring popular trading instruments to regulated U.S. markets.
See also: Coinbase Launches Pre-IPO Perpetual Futures Starting with SpaceX
Kraken recently entered the U.S. regulated derivatives market through acquisitions of NinjaTrader and Bitnomial, gaining access to futures commission merchant, exchange, and clearing licenses regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The company expects to launch perpetual futures on Kraken Pro in the coming weeks.
Prediction market platform Kalshi, which launched U.S. perpetual futures last week, already crossed $1 billion in trading volume, signaling strong early demand for regulated products. This momentum suggests the market is ready for the transition from offshore to domestic venues.
Palmer argued that one reason perpetual futures became so successful internationally is their structural simplicity. Unlike dated futures, which require traders to manage expirations and contract rolls, perps allow positions to remain open indefinitely. “I think it’s a simple derivative structure compared to some of the nuances of dealing with dated futures,” he explained. “If I buy a June future, then it expires, and if I want to keep my position on, I have to roll it.”
Removing those complexities could help bring U.S. traders closer to the experience available in international markets. Kraken also believes that eventually allowing crypto assets to be used as collateral will further enhance the appeal of regulated U.S. perpetual futures.
The broader institutional adoption timeline will likely stretch over years rather than months. Investment committees, compliance departments, and corporate governance structures all require time to evaluate new products. Palmer drew a direct parallel to the bitcoin ETF experience, noting that investment advisors and asset managers entered that market “in a trailing fashion because they had to go through their own due diligence and their own corporate governance structures.”
See also: Abra CEO Says Tokenization, Not Bitcoin Price, Will Drive Crypto’s Next Chapter
“I think we will see the same thing for perps,” he said.
The potential impact on the U.S. crypto derivatives market could be substantial. While spot bitcoin ETFs opened doors for traditional investors to gain exposure through brokerage accounts, regulated perpetual futures could give both retail and institutional traders access to one of crypto’s most popular trading instruments without needing offshore venues.
Despite crypto derivatives generating trillions of dollars in annual volume globally, according to CoinGecko, the U.S. market remains in its early stages. Palmer emphasized this point bluntly: “We’re at the beginning of the game. We’re at the national anthem still.”
The launch of regulated perpetual futures represents a significant step toward bringing crypto derivatives infrastructure in line with traditional financial markets. As more platforms gain CFTC approval and launch products, the competitive pressure to offer perps will likely accelerate adoption across the industry, potentially reshaping how U.S. traders access leveraged crypto exposure.
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