XAUUSD Gold Price Prediction for Week 25

XAUUSD Gold Price Prediction for Week 25

Trading Week 25 Gold price prediction from Dipprofit.

Technical Analysis and Buy/Sell Predictions 

Overview: 

Gold (XAUUSD) has been in a strong bullish trend, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of a dovish shift in monetary policy from major central banks. Our technical analysis, incorporating Smart Money Concepts (SMC), reveals consistent higher highs and higher lows across multiple timeframes, indicating robust institutional accumulation. 

4-Hour Timeframe Analysis: 

On the 4-hour chart, XAUUSD exhibits clear signs of an uptrend. Recent price action shows a series of impulsive moves followed by shallow retracements. We observe well-defined bullish order blocks (OBs) acting as strong support zones. For instance, after a significant break of structure (BOS) to the upside, price often retests the last valid bullish OB before continuing its ascent. Liquidity sweeps below minor swing lows are common, indicating that smart money is accumulating positions by triggering retail stop-losses. Fair value gaps (FVGs) created during impulsive moves are frequently filled on retracements, offering potential entry points. 

Buy Prediction: Look for entries on retracements into bullish 4-hour order blocks or the mitigation of fair value gaps, especially after a confirmed liquidity sweep. A strong bullish candle formation from these zones would confirm entry. Target the next significant swing high or an unmitigated FVG above current price. • 

Sell Prediction: Short-term selling opportunities might arise on deep retracements towards significant bearish order blocks on higher timeframes, or if there is a clear change of character (CHOCH) on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential short-term reversal. However, given the strong bullish bias, these would be counter-trend trades and carry higher risk. Target the nearest liquidity pool below or the next bullish OB. 

1-Day Timeframe Analysis: 

The daily chart reinforces the strong bullish market structure. Major daily bullish order blocks have held firm, demonstrating significant institutional demand. The overall trend is clearly upward, with price consistently breaking previous daily highs. Any pullbacks on the daily chart are typically shallow, indicating strong underlying buying pressure. The daily timeframe provides a broader context for the 4-hour movements, confirming the direction of the higher timeframe flow. 

Buy Prediction: Ideal long-term buy entries would be on deep daily retracements into significant daily bullish order blocks or demand zones, especially if aligned with a liquidity sweep on lower timeframes. Confirmation from bullish price action on the daily chart is crucial. Target new all-time highs or significant psychological levels. 

Sell Prediction: Selling on the daily timeframe is highly risky given the strong uptrend. Only consider short positions if there is a clear and sustained break of daily market structure to the downside (CHOCH) followed by bearish retests of supply zones. Target the nearest daily liquidity pool or major daily demand zone. 

1-Week Timeframe Analysis: 

The weekly chart illustrates the long-term bullish dominance in XAUUSD. The price has been in a sustained uptrend for an extended period, with minimal bearish corrections. Weekly order blocks represent very strong areas of institutional interest. The overall market narrative supports gold as a safe-haven asset, which is reflected in this long-term bullish structure. 

Buy Prediction: Long-term investors should look for entries on significant weekly retracements into demand zones or weekly bullish order blocks. These opportunities are less frequent but offer high-probability, low-risk entries for sustained upward moves. Target multi-year highs or new record highs.

Sell Prediction: Selling on the weekly timeframe is generally not advised in a strong uptrend unless there is a fundamental shift in the market or a clear break of major weekly market structure. Such a move would indicate a significant change in the long-term outlook. 

1-Month Timeframe Analysis:

The monthly chart provides the macro perspective, confirming the multi-year bullish trend for XAUUSD. This timeframe highlights the long-term accumulation by central banks and large institutions. The monthly candles show strong bullish closes, indicating sustained buying pressure over extended periods. There are very few, if any, significant bearish order blocks or supply zones that have held against this long-term bullish momentum. 

Buy Prediction: Monthly entries are for very long-term positions. Look for buying opportunities on deep, multi-month retracements into historical demand zones or significant monthly order blocks. These are rare but offer the highest reward-to-risk ratios for long-term investment in gold. 

Sell Prediction: Selling on the monthly timeframe is extremely high risk and generally not recommended given the prevailing long-term bullish trend. A bearish reversal on this timeframe would require a significant shift in global economic and geopolitical landscapes.

EURUSD Free market analysis for week 21

XAUUSD (Gold) Fundamental Analysis 

Recent news indicates that the price of XAUUSD (Gold) is significantly influenced by:

Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is a major driver, increasing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. This has contributed to its upward trajectory, with prices reaching new highs.

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are also playing a crucial role. A more dovish stance from the Fed tends to weaken the US Dollar, making gold more attractive to investors as it becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies. 

Key economic events and indicators that significantly influence XAUUSD (Gold) price movements include: 

Interest Rate Decisions (Federal Reserve, ECB, etc.): Gold is highly sensitive to interest rate changes. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it less attractive. Conversely, lower interest rates or expectations of rate cuts (dovish central bank policy) tend to boost gold prices. 

Inflation Data (CPI, PPI): Gold is often considered a hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, the purchasing power of fiat currencies erodes, increasing demand for gold as a store of value. 

Geopolitical Events and Global Economic Uncertainty: As highlighted in the news analysis, geopolitical tensions (e.g., conflicts, trade wars) and broader economic uncertainties (e.g., recessions, financial crises) drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold, leading to price appreciation.

US Dollar Strength: Gold is priced in US dollars, so a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially dampening demand. A weaker dollar has the opposite effect. 

Central Bank Gold Reserves: Actions by central banks, such as increasing or decreasing their gold reserves, can signal confidence in the economy or a shift in monetary policy, thereby influencing gold prices.

Summary and Conclusion 

In summary, XAUUSD has demonstrated distinct yet interconnected price dynamics. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, has seen its price appreciate significantly due to persistent geopolitical tensions and expectations of a dovish shift in central bank monetary policies. Its technical structure, characterized by clear uptrends and bullish order blocks across multiple timeframes, reinforces the notion of sustained institutional interest.

Our analysis provides potential buy and sell zones based on SMC principles for various timeframes, allowing traders to align their strategies with the prevailing trend and institutional flow. Fundamental drivers such as inflation concerns and central bank activities continue to underpin its value.