Prediction Markets Reflect Wisdom of Informed Minority, Not the Crowd, New Study Finds

A study has challenged the long-held belief that prediction markets harness the “wisdom of the crowd,” revealing instead that these platforms primarily reflect the insights of a small, well-informed minority of participants. The research, which analyzed trading patterns and outcomes across major prediction market platforms, found that market accuracy stems not from aggregating diverse opinions…

Prediction Markets Reflect Wisdom of Informed Minority, Not the Crowd, New Study Finds

42 Democratic Lawmakers Demand CFTC Warn Federal Workers on Prediction Market Trading

At least 42 Democratic lawmakers have formally requested that the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Office of Government Ethics issue comprehensive guidance warning federal employees against using insider information to trade on prediction markets. The letter, addressed to CFTC Chair Mike Selig and the Office of Government Ethics, cited “multiple incidents” that…

42 Democratic Lawmakers Demand CFTC Warn Federal Workers on Prediction Market Trading