Galaxy Digital has significantly downgraded its forecast for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, cutting passage odds to just 50% as the US Senate faces a rapidly narrowing legislative window before its August recess. The crypto investment firm’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, cited the lack of a unified Senate Banking-Agriculture committee text, no firm floor schedule, and intensifying competition for floor time as key reasons for the pessimistic reassessment.
The downgrade marks the second major revision in less than three weeks. Galaxy had previously lowered its estimate from 75% to 60% on June 9, following an earlier upgrade to 75% on May 22. The latest cut reflects mounting concern that even bipartisan legislation may struggle to secure adequate floor time in an increasingly crowded Senate calendar.
Thorn emphasized that the downgrade concerns timing rather than the substance of the bill itself. However, the legislative landscape has become considerably more complicated following President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel the signing of a bipartisan housing bill and demand that Congress pass the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections bill, before he would sign housing legislation. This political maneuver has intensified congressional competition for floor time and created additional obstacles for crypto-related legislation.
The CLARITY Act, which aims to establish the first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, is scheduled for a House hearing on July 17. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May but has faced significant opposition from most Democrats and the banking industry, which argue that it would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without meeting the same requirements imposed on traditional financial institutions.
See also: BitGo Cuts 15% of Staff as Crypto Industry Faces AI-Driven Layoff Wave
The Senate’s current work period runs through July 10, with lawmakers scheduled to begin their traditional August recess on August 8 for five weeks before returning on September 14. This compressed timeline leaves minimal opportunity for the CLARITY Act to advance through the legislative process. The Senate is simultaneously grappling with two other major legislative priorities that are consuming leadership attention and floor time.
Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) remains unfinished business after the House failed to pass a reauthorization. Additionally, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2027 is considered must-pass legislation and typically becomes a focal point for political debate and amendments. These competing priorities further squeeze the available window for crypto regulation, according to Thorn’s analysis.
The crypto industry has mobilized to support the CLARITY Act’s passage. In early June, over 200 crypto companies and organizations urged the Senate to pass the bill through a letter coordinated by the crypto lobby group Stand With Crypto. However, this support has been countered by growing concerns from law enforcement and religious organizations.
Later in June, a coalition of law enforcement organizations and Catholic groups contacted White House officials expressing concerns that the CLARITY Act could create oversight gaps regarding illicit activity and financial crime. These concerns add another layer of political complexity to an already contentious legislative battle, as noted in related coverage of industry challenges facing the crypto sector.
See also: Learn How to Use Bollinger Bands to Make Better Trade Calls in 2026
The CLARITY Act represents a significant moment for crypto regulation in the United States. If passed, it would establish clear regulatory guidelines for digital asset firms and potentially resolve years of regulatory uncertainty that has plagued the industry. However, the bill’s opponents argue that it favors crypto companies at the expense of consumer protection and financial stability.
Galaxy’s revised forecast suggests that crypto advocates should prepare for the possibility that comprehensive digital asset regulation may not materialize in 2026. The firm’s analysis indicates that without a dramatic shift in the Senate’s legislative priorities or a significant acceleration of the bill’s progress, passage before the August recess appears increasingly unlikely.
The coming weeks will be critical for determining the CLARITY Act’s fate. With the House hearing scheduled for mid-July and the Senate’s August recess approaching rapidly, the window for legislative action continues to narrow. Industry observers and policymakers are closely monitoring developments, as the outcome could have far-reaching implications for how digital assets are regulated in the United States for years to come.
More Reads
3 realistic Ways to Earn Passive Income in Nigeria (Even If You Have a Full-Time Job)
Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Analysis Week 26
If you’re reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there, by joining the…
Dipprofit’s private Telegram community
Discover more from Dipprofit
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
