EUR/USD weekly price analysis reveals the pair trading around $1.177, gaining 0.58% over the past week after climbing from 1.1699 to 1.1767. The euro’s strengthening position against the dollar reflects growing expectations for Fed interest rate cuts following disappointing US economic data, while the ECB maintains a relatively hawkish stance. This week’s PMI data from both regions and the upcoming US GDP report will likely determine whether EUR/USD can sustain its upward momentum above the critical 1.1800 resistance level.
EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD forming a series of higher lows and higher highs since the 1.1699 support level held firmly, with price now consolidating just below the 1.1800 psychological resistance. Recent price action has created a bullish order block between 1.1750-1.1765, which previously acted as resistance before being flipped to support, while a fair value gap remains unfilled in the 1.1730-1.1745 range.
Buy Prediction: Look for long entries on pullbacks to the 1.1750-1.1765 support zone, confirmed by bullish engulfing candles or rejection wicks showing buyer presence. Target the immediate resistance at 1.1800, followed by 1.1850 if the breakout sustains, with stops placed below 1.1740.
Sell Prediction: Counter-trend selling opportunities exist only on rejection from the 1.1800 level with bearish divergence on RSI, targeting the 1.1730 fair value gap. However, this is higher risk given the developing uptrend, and would represent a short-term correction rather than trend reversal.
Daily Chart Analysis
The daily chart confirms EUR/USD’s ongoing uptrend with price action now testing the upper boundary of a two-month ascending channel. The 50-day moving average has crossed above the 100-day moving average, confirming strengthening bullish momentum, while the pair remains comfortably above the critical 1.1650 support zone where institutional buying has previously emerged.
Buy Prediction: Consider position building on retracements to the daily support zone between 1.1680-1.1700, confirmed by bullish daily candle closures and positive divergence on indicators. Primary targets include 1.1850 followed by the significant 1.1950 resistance level from October 2025.
Sell Prediction: Selling on the daily timeframe carries substantial risk given the intact bullish structure. Only a daily close below 1.1650 would warrant bearish positioning, which would signal a potential channel breakdown targeting 1.1550-1.1580.
Weekly Chart Analysis
The weekly chart displays EUR/USD continuing its recovery from the December 2025 lows around 1.1480, with the pair forming three consecutive bullish weekly candles. The 20-week EMA has flattened and begun turning upward, suggesting strengthening momentum, while significant institutional accumulation is evident from increasing weekly volume profiles at higher levels.
Buy Prediction: Weekly retracements to the 1.1630-1.1660 zone represent high-probability entry opportunities for position building, especially if accompanied by bullish engulfing weekly patterns. Long-term targets include 1.2000 followed by 1.2150, levels not seen since early 2025.
Sell Prediction: Weekly selling remains inadvisable within the developing bullish structure. Only a fundamental shift in central bank policy divergence or a weekly close below the 1.1480 structural low would justify bearish positioning.
Monthly Chart Analysis
The monthly chart reveals EUR/USD recovering within a broad 1.1400-1.2300 range that has contained price action since mid-2024. The current price sits at a critical inflection point within this range, with long-term institutional positioning showing accumulation above the 1.1600 level that has historically provided strong support over multiple years.
Buy Prediction: Deep monthly retracements to the 1.1500-1.1550 range would present exceptional risk/reward for investment-scale entries, particularly if coinciding with oversold readings on monthly momentum indicators. Strategic targets include the 1.2100-1.2300 upper range boundary.
Sell Prediction: Monthly timeframe selling would require catastrophic fundamental developments like a complete reversal in central bank policy divergence or a severe European economic crisis. Even then, the strong multi-year support at 1.1400 would likely contain major downside.
Technical Analysis
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $1.177 |
| Critical Support | $1.1650 |
| Immediate Resistance | $1.1800 |
| Major Resistance | $1.1950 |
EUR/USD’s technical structure has improved significantly with the pair forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart. The RSI indicator at 58 shows strengthening momentum without reaching overbought territory, suggesting room for additional upside. The pair’s price action above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages confirms the bullish bias, though the immediate challenge lies at the 1.1800 psychological level where previous rallies have faced rejection.
Volume analysis shows increasing participation on upward moves compared to downward corrections, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution is the dominant force in current market dynamics. The key invalidation point for the bullish structure would be a break below 1.1650, which would transform the ascending triangle into a potential range-bound scenario. This technical landscape aligns with similar patterns observed in other currency pairs where the dollar has been losing strength across multiple markets amid changing monetary policy expectations.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis
Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have strengthened market expectations for interest rate cuts beginning in Q3 2026, with disappointing US manufacturing data and cooling inflation readings providing the necessary economic justification. This anticipated policy shift is undermining dollar strength as interest rate differentials between the US and eurozone are expected to narrow.
ECB Hawkish Stance: The European Central Bank has maintained a relatively hawkish tone in recent communications, with several Governing Council members expressing reluctance to commit to rate cuts until inflation shows sustained decline toward the 2% target. This monetary policy divergence has created a fundamental tailwind for EUR/USD.
Economic Data Releases: PMI data from both the eurozone and US will be critical this week as markets gauge the relative economic strength of both regions. Recent European manufacturing data has shown unexpected resilience, contributing to euro strength.
US Political Uncertainty: Growing uncertainty surrounding US fiscal policy ahead of the November elections has introduced an additional risk premium to the dollar. Markets are increasingly pricing in potential volatility as election campaigning intensifies, similar to patterns observed in previous election cycles where the dollar has typically underperformed during periods of political uncertainty.
Weekly Outlook
Main Scenario: EUR/USD holds above the 1.1750 support zone and successfully breaks through the 1.1800 resistance level → Momentum accelerates as stop orders above 1.1800 are triggered → Price advances toward 1.1850-1.1875 in the short term, with potential to challenge 1.1950 if US data disappoints significantly.
Alternative Scenario: Failure at the 1.1800 resistance followed by a break below 1.1750 support → Correction extends toward the 1.1700-1.1720 region → Deeper retracement to test the critical 1.1650 support level if US economic data significantly outperforms expectations.
The weekly outlook will be heavily influenced by Wednesday’s eurozone PMI data and Friday’s preliminary US GDP report for Q1. Stronger-than-expected eurozone figures coupled with disappointing US growth data would strongly favor the main bullish scenario, while the opposite combination could trigger the alternative bearish scenario.
EUR/USD stands at a pivotal technical juncture with fundamental winds shifting in favor of euro strength, though the sustainability of the move remains contingent on this week’s critical data releases confirming or challenging the developing narrative of Fed-ECB policy divergence.
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