Bitcoin enters the final week of April 2024 trading around $77,997, up 3.21% over the past seven days as the cryptocurrency continues its gradual ascent toward the $80,000 psychological barrier. The market currently reflects a tension between short-term consolidation patterns and improving on-chain fundamentals, with strengthening ETF inflows providing crucial support for sustained price action. The upcoming US GDP data and PCE inflation figures will likely determine whether Bitcoin can break out from its current range.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
Bitcoin is forming a series of higher lows on the 4-hour timeframe, establishing a clear ascending support trendline from the $75,874 local bottom while repeatedly testing the $78,000-$78,260 resistance zone. Recent price action shows decreasing volatility with tightening Bollinger Bands, suggesting energy is building for a potential breakout, while the visible accumulation within the $76,800-$77,200 order block indicates strong buyer interest at these levels.
Buy Prediction: Look for long entries on pullbacks to the $76,800-$77,200 demand zone, confirmed by bullish engulfing candles or a liquidity sweep below $76,800 with quick recovery. Target the immediate resistance at $78,260 with an extended target at $80,000 if breakout occurs; place stops below $76,500.
Sell Prediction: Counter-trend shorting opportunities appear limited in the current structure, but traders could consider short positions only if price decisively breaks and closes below the ascending trendline around $76,500, targeting the $75,800 support with tight stops above $77,200.
Daily Chart Analysis
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin maintains its broader uptrend with price action consolidating above the 20-day EMA ($76,800), forming a potential bull flag pattern after the recent impulse move from $70,000 to $78,000. Sustained buying volume on up-days compared to diminishing volume on down-days suggests accumulation rather than distribution, while daily RSI holding above 55 indicates momentum remains with the bulls despite the recent consolidation.
Buy Prediction: Consider building longer-term positions on dips to the $75,500-$76,500 range where the 20-day EMA and previous resistance-turned-support align, waiting for daily candle closures above entry point as confirmation. Target the $82,000-$84,000 range, representing the measured move from the bull flag pattern.
Sell Prediction: Selling remains high-risk in the current daily structure. Only consider bearish positions if price breaks and confirms below both the 20-day EMA ($76,800) and the 50-day MA ($73,500) with increased volume, which would signal a potential trend shift.
Weekly Chart Analysis
The weekly chart shows Bitcoin in a strong uptrend since October 2023, with the current week forming a potential inside bar following last week’s bullish candle. Bitcoin continues trading well above its rising 10-week EMA ($73,200), maintaining the bullish market structure that has characterized 2024 so far, while the weekly RSI at 65 suggests room for further upside before overbought conditions materialize.
Buy Prediction: Major weekly retracement opportunities exist in the $72,000-$74,000 zone where the 10-week EMA and previous resistance-turned-support converge, representing ideal areas for position building with favorable risk/reward. Target previous all-time high retests around $84,000 with extended targets at $90,000.
Sell Prediction: Weekly timeframe selling is not advised in the current market structure. Only a clear breakdown below the 10-week EMA ($73,200) with a weekly close under this level, accompanied by deteriorating on-chain metrics and institutional outflows, would warrant consideration of substantial bearish positions.
Monthly Chart Analysis
The monthly perspective shows Bitcoin in a clear long-term uptrend after breaking its previous all-time high, with the April candle poised to potentially close as a third consecutive bullish month. The post-halving momentum aligns with historical cycles suggesting continued strength through 2024-2025, while institutional adoption metrics indicate a fundamental shift in market dynamics compared to previous cycles.
Buy Prediction: Deep retracements to the $65,000-$68,000 range would represent exceptional long-term investment opportunities, coinciding with the previous all-time high zone that should function as strong support. These entries would position investors favorably for the multi-month uptrend that typically follows Bitcoin halvings.
Sell Prediction: Monthly timeframe selling carries extreme risk given Bitcoin’s position in its four-year cycle and broader adoption trends. Only major regulatory crackdowns across multiple jurisdictions, severe macroeconomic deterioration affecting all risk assets, or fundamental protocol vulnerabilities would justify selling at this stage of the market cycle.
Technical Analysis
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $77,997 |
| Critical Support | $76,500 |
| Immediate Resistance | $78,260 |
| Major Resistance | $80,000 |
Bitcoin’s technical picture shows a consolidation phase near all-time highs with decreasing volatility, a classic sign of accumulation before continuation. The RSI oscillator on the daily timeframe registers 58, indicating moderate bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory, while the MACD shows a narrowing histogram but remains above the signal line, suggesting the uptrend remains intact despite slowing momentum.
Volume analysis reveals a pattern of higher volume on up-days and decreasing volume on down-days, typically a bullish indication that selling pressure is diminishing. The current consolidation pattern resembles a bull flag formation, with the flagpole representing the move from $70,000 to $78,000, projecting a potential target of $82,000-$84,000 upon breakout. This structure would be invalidated by a decisive close below $75,500, which would suggest a deeper correction may be needed before continuation.
Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis
Recent news indicates Bitcoin price is influenced by:
- Spot ETF Flows: Bitcoin ETFs recorded their 10th consecutive day of net inflows last week, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone adding over $300 million in a single day. This consistent institutional buying pressure provides a significant floor for Bitcoin prices despite short-term volatility and demonstrates sustained demand from traditional finance participants.
Post-Halving Dynamics: The recent Bitcoin halving has historically preceded bull markets by reducing new supply. On-chain data shows that miner selling has decreased significantly post-halving, with several large mining operations announcing plans to hold newly mined Bitcoin rather than selling immediately, creating additional supply constraints that typically support price appreciation over the coming months.
Key events and indicators influencing Bitcoin:
- US Macroeconomic Data: The upcoming GDP data (Thursday) and PCE inflation figures (Friday) will significantly impact Bitcoin as they shape Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Lower inflation readings typically benefit Bitcoin by supporting the narrative of upcoming monetary easing.
Exchange Reserves: Bitcoin held on exchanges continues to decrease, down 2.3% over the past 30 days, signaling fewer coins available for immediate sale and suggesting investors are moving toward longer-term holdings—historically a precursor to sustained price appreciation.
Weekly Outlook
Main Scenario: Bitcoin maintains support above $76,500 and eventually breaks through the $78,260 resistance → steady climb toward the $80,000 psychological level → potential extension to $82,000-$84,000 range if ETF inflows remain strong and macro data supports risk assets.
Alternative Scenario: Failure to hold the $76,500 support level with a daily close below the 20-day EMA → pullback toward the stronger support zone at $73,500-$74,000 where the 50-day MA provides a technical floor → this would represent a healthy correction rather than trend reversal, with reduced likelihood unless macro data significantly disappoints.
Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture where consolidation patterns suggest energy is building for the next directional move, with fundamental factors like ETF inflows and post-halving supply dynamics tilting the odds toward continuation of the broader uptrend, conditional on supportive macroeconomic data in the coming week.
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