Bitcoin continues to trade around $75,408, maintaining its position above the psychologically significant $75,000 level despite heightened volatility. The market shows a clear tug-of-war between profit-taking after the recent 5.49% weekly gain and resilient demand, evidenced by consistent recovery from dips below $74,500. This week’s cautious trading likely shows market participants digesting mixed signals from the SEC’s potential approval of a spot Ethereum ETF alongside continued Bitcoin ETF inflows.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
The 4-hour structure displays lower highs forming since the $77,128 peak, creating a descending resistance trendline, while buyers have consistently defended the $74,100-$74,300 zone, establishing a narrowing range. Recent price action shows wicks extending below support before quick recoveries, indicating aggressive buying of liquidity sweeps, though volume has been decreasing during consolidation periods.
Buy Prediction: Look for entries on retests of the $74,100-$74,400 demand zone with confirmation from either a bullish engulfing candle or extended lower wick rejection. Target the immediate resistance at $76,200 with stops below $73,800 for a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Sell Prediction: Counter-trend shorting opportunities exist on rejections from the descending trendline currently around $76,000-$76,200, confirmed by bearish divergence on RSI. Target the lower range support at $74,300 with tight stops above the rejection candle’s high.
Daily Chart Analysis
The daily timeframe maintains its bullish structure with higher lows since February, though momentum indicators show weakening upside pressure. The 20-day EMA ($72,800) continues rising and providing dynamic support, while trading volume has decreased during the most recent consolidation, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution.
Buy Prediction: Strong daily entry zones exist between $72,800-$73,500, aligning with the 20-day EMA and previous resistance-turned-support. Wait for a daily close above $76,500 as confirmation for targeting the recent high of $77,128 and potentially $80,000 psychological resistance.
Sell Prediction: Selling on the daily timeframe carries significant risk given the intact uptrend. Only consider short positions if price closes decisively below the $72,000 support with increased volume, which would signal a potential trend reversal targeting $68,000-$70,000.
Weekly Chart Analysis
Bitcoin maintains its powerful weekly uptrend with seven consecutive green candles before last week’s small consolidation candle, suggesting strong institutional accumulation continues. The weekly RSI remains elevated but not yet in extreme overbought territory, while the $71,000-$72,000 zone represents major previous resistance now acting as support.
Buy Prediction: Weekly retracements to the $69,000-$71,000 range offer exceptional position-building opportunities with minimal downside risk. These levels align with the rising 10-week EMA and previous all-time high resistance, now support.
Sell Prediction: Weekly timeframe selling remains inadvisable without a fundamental regime change. Only a weekly close below $64,000 with expanding volume would warrant reassessment of the bull market structure.
Monthly Chart Analysis
The monthly chart displays Bitcoin in price discovery mode above all-time highs, with consistently higher lows forming since the 2022 bear market bottom. Institutional flow data suggests systematic accumulation continues despite short-term volatility, with the monthly chart showing no sign of a major top formation pattern.
Buy Prediction: Deep corrections to the $58,000-$64,000 range (previous all-time high zone) would represent rare investment-grade entries with multi-year upside potential. These opportunities typically occur only during major risk-off events affecting all asset classes.
Sell Prediction: Monthly timeframe distribution patterns would require multiple months to form, beginning with expanded volatility, volume climax, and eventual breakdown of key moving averages. No such signals are present, making macro selling extremely high-risk.
Technical Analysis
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $75,408 |
| Critical Support | $74,200 |
| Immediate Resistance | $76,500 |
| Major Resistance | $77,128 |
Bitcoin’s consolidation phase has created a clear technical pattern with resistance at $77,128 (recent high) and support at $74,200. The RSI indicator on the daily timeframe has cooled from overbought conditions, now hovering around 58, suggesting room for another potential upside move. The MACD histogram shows decreasing bullish momentum but remains above the signal line, indicating the uptrend remains intact despite slowing.
Volume analysis reveals decreasing participation during this consolidation phase, typically a precursor to a significant move. Notably, dips below $74,500 have consistently seen volume spikes on the buy side, reinforcing the support level’s importance. The current technical structure would be invalidated by a daily close below $72,800, which would signal a deeper correction potentially targeting the $69,000-$70,000 range.
See also: SEC Charges Crypto Executive Donald Basile in $16M Bitcoin Latinum Fraud Scheme
Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis
Recent news indicates Bitcoin price is influenced by:
- ETF Flows: Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $500 million in net inflows last week according to Bloomberg data, demonstrating continued institutional demand despite short-term volatility. BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant player with approximately $300 million in weekly inflows.
- Ethereum ETF Optimism: Reports that the SEC is meeting with potential Ethereum ETF issuers have created optimism across the crypto market, with many analysts suggesting approval could trigger another leg up for the entire sector, including Bitcoin.
- Mt. Gox Repayment Delays: The postponement of Mt. Gox repayments has temporarily reduced selling pressure concerns, as approximately $9 billion worth of Bitcoin was expected to be distributed to creditors starting in July.
Key events and indicators impacting Bitcoin price:
- FOMC Minutes: The Federal Reserve’s upcoming minutes release could influence Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory as markets remain sensitive to interest rate policy signals. Previous hints at persistent inflation have typically created short-term pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin.
- Institutional Derivatives Data: CME Bitcoin futures show continued net long positioning by institutional investors, with open interest increasing despite the recent consolidation phase, suggesting conviction in the ongoing bull cycle.
- On-chain Metrics: Exchange outflow ratios remain elevated, indicating continued accumulation and reduced available supply on exchanges, typically a bullish long-term indicator.
Weekly Outlook
Main Scenario: Bitcoin holds above the critical $74,200 support and eventually breaks through $76,500 resistance → continuation of the bullish trend → targets $77,128 (recent high) followed by $80,000 (psychological level).
Alternative Scenario: Breakdown below $74,200 and failure to reclaim this level within 24 hours → deeper correction → downside targets of $72,800 (20-day EMA) initially and potentially $69,000-$70,000 (previous resistance zone now support).
The market’s ability to hold the $74,000-$75,000 range despite profit-taking pressure demonstrates underlying strength, but diminishing momentum suggests caution in the immediate term. The directional bias remains moderately bullish while price maintains above $74,200, though traders should monitor for a potential range expansion following this period of compression.
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