Bitcoin trades around $78,269 as it consolidates near all-time high levels, showing remarkable stability with just a 0.05% 24-hour change despite 17.48% monthly gains. The market finds itself at a critical juncture where short-term profit-taking pressure battles against post-halving supply dynamics and growing institutional interest. This week’s price action suggests Bitcoin is building a new support base while traders digest recent SEC comments about Ethereum ETF consideration and Coinbase’s expansion plans.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
Bitcoin’s 4-hour structure maintains a series of higher lows despite recent volatility, with price currently testing the $77,800-$78,200 order block that previously acted as resistance. A significant liquidity sweep occurred at $75,774, clearing out stop losses before rapidly reversing, suggesting strong buyer presence at lower levels, while a fair value gap remains unfilled between $76,400-$76,800.
Buy Prediction: Look for long entries on pullbacks to the $76,400-$77,000 demand zone, confirmed by bullish divergence on RSI or a sweep of local lows followed by strong buying volume. Target the immediate resistance at $79,800 with stops below $75,700.
Sell Prediction: Counter-trend shorting opportunities exist only if price fails to hold above $77,000, confirmed by bearish engulfing candles and declining volume during attempts to reclaim that level. In this scenario, target the $74,500-$75,000 support zone, but remain cautious as the broader trend remains bullish.
Daily Chart Analysis
The daily trend remains decisively bullish with Bitcoin establishing a clear support zone between $75,500-$77,000 after the recent post-halving surge. Daily candlesticks show decreasing volatility with narrowing ranges, typically a sign of accumulation rather than distribution, while the 20-day EMA ($75,200) continues to slope upward, providing dynamic support.
Buy Prediction: Consider strategic long positions on daily closes above $78,800, or alternatively on retests of the $75,200-$76,000 zone with bullish hammer or engulfing patterns. Primary target at $82,000 with secondary target at the psychological $85,000 level.
Sell Prediction: Selling on the daily timeframe carries significant risk given the established uptrend. Only consider short positions if price breaks and closes below the 20-day EMA ($75,200) with increasing volume, which would suggest a deeper correction toward the $70,000 psychological level.
Weekly Chart Analysis
Bitcoin’s weekly chart displays impressive strength with six consecutive green candles following the halving event, establishing a clear bullish market structure. Key weekly demand zones exist at $68,000-$70,000 (previous all-time high now acting as support) and $58,000-$60,000, while the RSI remains elevated but not yet overextended at weekly levels.
Buy Prediction: High-probability weekly entries would emerge on pullbacks to the $68,000-$70,000 range, especially if accompanied by bullish divergences on weekly indicators. These represent ideal position-building opportunities for multi-month holds targeting $90,000-$100,000.
Sell Prediction: Weekly timeframe selling is not advisable in the current market structure. Only a weekly close below $65,000 with follow-through weakness would suggest a regime change warranting defensive positioning.
Monthly Chart Analysis
The monthly chart reveals Bitcoin in a clear macro uptrend following the 2022-2023 accumulation phase, with consistent higher lows forming since breaking the previous cycle’s all-time high. Institutional on-chain metrics show continued accumulation with minimal selling pressure from long-term holders, suggesting conviction in higher prices over the coming months.
Buy Prediction: Deep corrections to the $58,000-$65,000 range would represent generational buying opportunities on the monthly timeframe, especially following a halving event with historically bullish 12-18 month outcomes. These represent investment-grade entries for multi-year positioning.
Sell Prediction: Monthly timeframe selling would only be justified by catastrophic regulatory developments or fundamental protocol security issues. The post-halving supply reduction combined with institutional adoption makes sustained bearish price action highly unlikely on this timeframe.
Technical Analysis
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $78,269 |
| Critical Support | $75,800 |
| Immediate Resistance | $79,800 |
| Major Resistance | $82,500 |
Bitcoin’s technical structure shows consolidation in a narrowing range between $75,800-$79,800, forming what appears to be a bull flag pattern after the strong post-halving rally. The RSI on daily timeframes has reset from overbought conditions without significant price depreciation, typically a bullish sign indicating healthy consolidation rather than trend exhaustion.
Volume analysis reveals declining sell volumes during dips, while buy volumes spike on attempts to breach resistance levels. This volume profile supports the bullish case, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution is occurring at these levels. The Bollinger Bands are contracting on daily timeframes, often preceding a significant expansion move, while the 20-day EMA has caught up to price, providing technical support around $75,200.
Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis
Recent news indicates Bitcoin price is influenced by:
SEC Ethereum ETF Consideration: SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s recent comments suggesting the regulator is reviewing Ethereum ETF applications have boosted market sentiment, with potential approval later this year creating positive spillover effects for Bitcoin. This regulatory development reinforces institutional interest in the broader crypto asset class.
Post-Halving Supply Dynamics: On-chain metrics confirm miners are holding more Bitcoin than they’re selling following the recent block reward halving, creating a supply squeeze that contrasts with increasing demand from spot ETFs, which have continued to see net inflows exceeding $400 million weekly.
Coinbase Exchange Expansion: Coinbase’s announced plans to expand operations in various international markets, including securing regulatory approvals in major European countries, signals growing mainstream adoption and improved regulatory clarity.
Key economic indicators that significantly influence Bitcoin:
Federal Reserve Policy: Market expectations for interest rate cuts in September remain a key driver for Bitcoin, with any shifts in Fed rhetoric potentially impacting institutional appetite for risk assets.
Spot ETF Flows: Daily and weekly inflow/outflow data from the 11 approved Bitcoin ETFs continues to serve as a primary sentiment indicator, with consistent positive net flows supporting the current price levels and potential upside.
Weekly Outlook
Main Scenario: Bitcoin maintains support above $75,800 and breaks above immediate resistance at $79,800, triggering a continuation of the uptrend toward the $82,500 level. Following consolidation at those levels, further extension toward $85,000 becomes probable as stop orders above recent highs get triggered, creating a liquidity cascade effect.
Alternative Scenario: Failure to hold the $75,800 support could trigger a deeper correction toward the next major support zone at $72,000-$73,000. This would represent a healthy 8-10% pullback within the broader uptrend and likely attract significant dip-buying interest, particularly from institutional players seeking better entry prices.
Bitcoin’s ability to maintain stability near all-time highs despite short-term profit-taking reflects strengthening fundamentals and post-halving supply dynamics, with the technical structure favoring continuation of the uptrend once the current consolidation phase completes.
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