Bitcoin is nearing its price bottom as the four-year halving cycle winds down, according to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, who expects the leading cryptocurrency to begin recovering throughout 2026.
Speaking with CNBC on Monday, van Eck dismissed complex theories about Bitcoin’s recent price action, arguing that the halving cycle has been the primary driver behind recent market weakness rather than fundamental concerns about the cryptocurrency.
“Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by limited supply at 21 million, and the halving cycle where the Bitcoin miners who run the network get paid half the number of Bitcoin every four years,” van Eck explained.
He pointed to a historical investing pattern where Bitcoin rallies for three consecutive years before declining in the fourth year. According to van Eck, 2026 represents that fourth year in the current cycle, explaining why the market has been bearish. “So I think we can overcomplicate it. Now I think we are making a bottom,” he stated.
The four-year crypto cycle has become a contentious topic among analysts over the past year. Industry observers remain divided on whether this chart pattern still holds relevance given the current level of institutional adoption and market maturity.
Critics of the cycle theory point to multiple factors that could override historical patterns, including substantial demand from exchange-traded funds, a weakening US dollar, and increasingly favorable regulatory developments in major markets.
Van Eck’s bullish outlook comes as Bitcoin trades at $68,400 at the time of writing, representing a 2.6% gain over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has surged 7.6% over the past seven days, according to data from CoinGecko.
The recent price recovery has coincided with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The United States and Israel initiated air strikes on Iran, which subsequently responded with its own strikes against Israel.
Van Eck suggested that growing geopolitical instability may be contributing to Bitcoin’s renewed strength, as cryptocurrency payment infrastructure provides critical channels for moving capital outside traditional banking systems during times of economic uncertainty.
“When one thinks forward to some sort of solution with Iran, how are you gonna move money around? And I do think it’s a very, very crypto-friendly region, UAE, Dubai, everything,” van Eck said.
He elaborated on how cryptocurrency rails could serve strategic purposes in conflict zones, stating: “So it could be that if we wanted to move money to good actors, we would wanna use crypto payment rails as opposed to going through decrepit Iranian banks that we don’t control.”
VanEck has been a prominent voice in institutional cryptocurrency adoption, managing one of the leading Bitcoin ETFs that launched in January 2024. The firm’s ETF offerings have contributed to the broader acceptance of cryptocurrency investment products among traditional finance institutions.
The halving cycle van Eck referenced occurs approximately every four years when the reward miners receive for validating Bitcoin transactions is cut in half. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
This mechanism is built into Bitcoin’s protocol to control supply inflation and gradually approach the 21 million coin hard cap. Historical data shows that previous halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020 were followed by significant bull runs, though the timing and magnitude of those rallies varied.
However, some analysts have questioned whether the halving cycle will continue to dictate price action as Bitcoin matures as an asset class. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has brought unprecedented institutional capital into the market, potentially creating new price dynamics that diverge from historical patterns.
Despite ongoing debates about market cycles, van Eck remains confident that Bitcoin’s supply-driven economics will ultimately drive prices higher as the current downturn concludes and a new cycle begins.
See also: Bitcoin Halving Explained for Serious Investors
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