EUR/USD weekly price analysis shows the currency pair trading at $1.172, up 0.35% over the past week despite a slight 24-hour pullback. The pair sits at a critical juncture where dollar strength from recent US economic resilience confronts euro support from potential ECB policy adjustments. Fed Chairman Powell’s latest comments suggesting rate cuts remain on the table for 2026 while maintaining a data-dependent approach have become the week’s focal point for EUR/USD traders.
EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The 4-hour timeframe reveals EUR/USD forming a series of higher lows since early week, maintaining a short-term bullish structure despite resistance rejections at $1.173. Key order blocks are visible between $1.1677-1.1685, which served as support during the mid-week pullback, with price now testing a critical liquidity zone above $1.172 that previously acted as resistance.
Buy Prediction: Look for long entries on retracements to the $1.1685-1.1695 demand zone, confirmed by bullish engulfing candles or RSI bullish divergence. Target the $1.1740 resistance with stops below $1.1670.
Sell Prediction: Counter-trend shorts could be considered on rejection at $1.1730-1.1740 resistance with bearish reversal candlestick formations, targeting a return to the $1.1685 support level. However, this remains a higher-risk setup given the underlying bullish structure.
Daily Chart Analysis
The daily trend shows EUR/USD consolidating in an ascending channel that has formed since March, with each dip consistently finding buyers. Major daily structure holds at $1.1620 support, while distribution patterns remain absent despite the consolidation near recent highs, suggesting institutional accumulation continues during pullbacks.
Buy Prediction: Consider building long positions during retracements to the daily demand zone at $1.1640-1.1660, confirmed by bullish engulfing daily candles and increased volume. Target the $1.1820 previous swing high with longer-term positioning.
Sell Prediction: Daily timeframe selling appears unwarranted until a clear break below the ascending channel support at $1.1620. Such a breakdown would need confirmation from a daily close below this level with increased volume, which isn’t currently present in the structure.
Weekly Chart Analysis
The multi-week trend shows EUR/USD maintaining bullish momentum after clearing the previous resistance at $1.1580 that has now flipped to support. Significant weekly demand zones exist at $1.1520-1.1580, while open interest data suggests institutional positioning remains net long despite profit-taking at recent highs.
Buy Prediction: Weekly retracements to the $1.1580-1.1620 zone represent high-probability entry opportunities for position building, particularly if accompanied by bullish weekly candlestick patterns and declining USD index.
Sell Prediction: Weekly timeframe selling is not advised within the current structure unless fundamental regime changes occur, such as dramatic shifts in Fed-ECB policy divergence or significant deterioration in European economic outlook relative to the US.
Monthly Chart Analysis
The long-term macro trend shows EUR/USD recovering from the 2022 lows but still trading within a broader range. Multi-year accumulation patterns have formed around the $1.05-1.12 area, with institutional behavior suggesting strategic positioning for potential dollar weakness as central banks globally approach easing cycles.
Buy Prediction: Deep retracements to the $1.1350-1.1450 zone would represent rare investment-grade opportunities aligned with the long-term bullish structure, particularly if coinciding with oversold monthly RSI and evidence of institutional accumulation.
Sell Prediction: Monthly timeframe selling carries extremely high risk given the established recovery trend. Only catastrophic developments such as a European banking crisis, severe eurozone fragmentation, or dramatic US economic outperformance would justify bearish positioning at this macro scale.
Technical Analysis
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $1.172 |
| Critical Support | $1.1677 |
| Immediate Resistance | $1.1730 |
| Major Resistance | $1.1820 |
EUR/USD’s technical structure shows the pair has formed a bullish flag pattern on the daily timeframe, typically a continuation signal within the uptrend that began in October 2025. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 56 on the daily chart, indicating moderate bullish momentum without overbought conditions that would typically precede corrections.
Volume analysis reveals higher-than-average participation during upward movements while pullbacks have occurred on declining volume, a bullish divergence pattern suggesting accumulation. The pair consistently finds support at the 50-day moving average ($1.1640), which has acted as a dynamic support level throughout April. The current technical setup would be invalidated by a daily close below $1.1620, which would signal a potential trend reversal requiring reassessment of the bullish bias.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis
Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve’s latest decision to maintain interest rates while indicating potential future cuts has provided short-term support for EUR/USD. Chairman Powell’s comments that inflation progress remains on track while maintaining flexibility in timing potential cuts has mitigated immediate dollar strength. This balancing act between combating inflation and supporting economic growth continues to be the primary driver for EUR/USD, as recent Fed policy signals indicate a cautious approach.
ECB-Fed Policy Divergence: Markets are now pricing in a higher likelihood that the European Central Bank may begin its easing cycle before the Federal Reserve, with June increasingly viewed as a probable starting point. This potential policy divergence has supported the euro despite stronger US economic data.
Economic Indicators: US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data due Friday will likely cause significant EUR/USD volatility, with employment numbers traditionally having an immediate impact on dollar strength.
Inflation Differentials: The persistent inflation gap between the eurozone and United States continues to influence central bank policy expectations, with eurozone inflation showing signs of moderation more quickly than its US counterpart.
Weekly Outlook
Main Scenario: EUR/USD holds above $1.1677 support and successfully clears the $1.1730 resistance level → likely continuation of the bullish trend → targeting $1.1780 initially with potential extension to $1.1820 if US employment data shows weakness. This scenario carries approximately 65% probability based on current technical and fundamental alignment.
Alternative Scenario: Breakdown below $1.1677 support or repeated failure at the $1.1730 resistance zone → correction toward the ascending channel support → downside targets at $1.1640 and potentially $1.1580 if accompanied by stronger-than-expected US economic data or hawkish Fed comments. This scenario would be strengthened if Friday’s employment report significantly exceeds expectations, reinforcing dollar strength.
Traders should closely monitor the upcoming US jobs report, as labor market conditions remain a critical factor in the Federal Reserve’s policy deliberations and will likely determine near-term direction for the pair.
The EUR/USD continues to navigate the complex interplay between central bank policy expectations, with dollar stabilization following the inflation concerns highlighted by market analysts potentially limiting upside movements despite the generally positive euro sentiment.
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