Bitcoin trades at $69,147, down over 7% from its all-time high of $74,858 set last week, as profit-taking pressure intensifies across the crypto market. The correction comes amid a complex backdrop where record spot ETF inflows clash with derivatives market positioning showing signs of leverage unwinding. This week’s focus turns to macroeconomic catalysts, including US Core PCE data and Fed speakers that could influence risk appetite.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
Price structure has shifted bearish on the 4H timeframe, breaking below the ascending trendline from March lows and forming lower highs below $72,500. A major order block sits between $68,500-$69,200, with liquidity pools building below $68,000 suggesting potential stop runs.
Buy Prediction: Look for long entries on retests of the $68,500-$69,200 demand zone with confirmation from bullish engulfing candles. Target the $71,500 resistance with stops below $67,800.
Sell Prediction: Counter-trend shorts possible on rejection at $71,500 targeting the $68,000 support, but only with clear bearish divergence confirmation.
Daily Chart Analysis
The daily uptrend remains intact despite the correction, with price holding above the 21-day EMA at $67,800. Major institutional accumulation zones are evident between $65,000-$67,000 based on volume profile, while the RSI has reset from overbought conditions.
Buy Prediction: Daily timeframe pullbacks to $67,000-$68,000 zone offer high-probability entries once RSI stabilizes above 45. Target new ATH above $75,000.
Sell Prediction: Not advised unless price breaks below $65,000 with heavy volume, which would signal trend reversal.
Weekly Chart Analysis
Weekly structure remains firmly bullish with 8 consecutive green candles before current consolidation. Major demand zone between $62,000-$65,000 represents previous resistance now support, backed by significant ETF-driven spot buying.
Buy Prediction: Weekly retracements to $65,000 area present optimal position building opportunities targeting $80,000+.
Sell Prediction: Weekly selling not recommended given strong institutional flows and macro tailwinds.
Monthly Chart Analysis
Monthly chart shows decisive breakout above previous ATH with strong volume confirmation. Long-term accumulation pattern completed with $69,000 breakthrough suggests sustained bull market phase.
Buy Prediction: Deep monthly pullbacks to $60,000 would represent generational buying opportunities for long-term positions.
Sell Prediction: Monthly timeframe shorts extremely high-risk without major macro catalyst like regulatory crackdown.
Technical Analysis
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $69,147 |
| Critical Support | $67,800 |
| Immediate Resistance | $71,500 |
| Major Resistance | $74,858 |
Volume analysis shows accumulation at lower levels despite the correction, with spot exchange reserves continuing to decline. The RSI has reset from overbought conditions while maintaining bullish momentum above 55. Key support at $67,800 aligns with the 21-day EMA and previous breakout level.
Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis
Recent news indicates Bitcoin price influenced by:
- ETF Flows: BlackRock’s IBIT surpassed $10B in AUM while net inflows remain consistently positive
- Institutional Adoption: Morgan Stanley reportedly exploring Bitcoin ETF custody services
- Market Structure: Increased futures market liquidations suggesting leverage cleanup
Key events and indicators:
- US Core PCE Data: Thursday’s inflation reading could impact risk assets
- Fed Commentary: Multiple FOMC speakers scheduled throughout week
Weekly Outlook
Main Scenario: Price holds above $67,800 support → consolidation resolves higher → new ATH test at $76,000-$78,000
Alternative Scenario: Break below $67,800 → extension of correction → test of major support at $65,000
Bitcoin enters a critical phase where short-term technical weakness meets sustained institutional demand fundamentals. Bias remains cautiously bullish above $67,800, though increased volatility likely as market digests recent gains.
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