Bitcoin investors are facing mounting pressure as on-chain data reveals that 63% of all wealth invested in the largest cryptocurrency has a cost basis above $88,000, according to analysis from Checkonchain.
This means the majority of capital that entered the market did so at prices higher than Bitcoin’s current trading levels. The metric, known as invested wealth, tracks the total value of capital deployed in Bitcoin based on when coins last moved on the blockchain.
The insight comes from the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), an on-chain indicator that illustrates the price levels at which Bitcoin’s existing supply last transacted. Each data point represents the amount of Bitcoin whose most recent movement occurred within specific price ranges.
Bitcoin has remained constrained between $80,000 and $90,000 since November. The URPD analysis highlights the extent of capital currently underwater, with tens of billions of dollars positioned between $85,000 and $90,000.
A price decline below $85,000 could trigger intensified selling pressure as investors attempt to limit losses. Long-term holders are already selling at the fastest pace in six months, adding to the bearish pressure on the market.
The supply situation presents additional risk factors. There is relatively little Bitcoin supply between $70,000 and $80,000 on the order books. If the $80,000 support level fails (last tested in November), a rapid move toward $70,000 becomes more probable.
Data from CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin is tracking to finish January with minimal changes, without the typical relief rally that historically follows three consecutive months of declines. Historically, February has been a strong month for Bitcoin, with average gains around 13% according to Coinglass and Binance data.
Whether Bitcoin can reverse course in February may depend on how the market absorbs the current overhang of underwater supply and whether new capital flows into the market to absorb selling pressure.
The elevated cost basis across the majority of Bitcoin’s supply underscores the broader challenge facing the crypto market as it navigates heightened volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty heading into the second month of 2026.
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