Bitcoin has gained 10% since the start of 2026, with analysts predicting the cryptocurrency could break into six figures for the first time since mid-November. The bullish outlook is being bolstered by a significant shift in the U.S. Treasury bond market, which has entered its calmest period since 2021.
The Treasury bond market serves as the foundation of global finance. These bonds are used as collateral across the financial system, from loans to derivatives, making them critical to how credit flows through the economy.
When Treasury bond prices become volatile, credit tightens across markets. This discourages investors from taking risks in stocks and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, when bond prices stabilize, credit becomes easier to access, prompting investors to allocate capital to riskier assets like digital currencies.
The ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in Treasury bonds over a four-week period, has fallen to 58, marking its lowest level since October 2021.
Its decline began in April of last year and has continued steadily downward, according to data from TradingView.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,300 as the bond market environment continues to favor risk assets. Technology stocks, particularly those in the Nasdaq 100 index, are also benefiting from the lower Treasury volatility.
Historically, Bitcoin has moved closely with the Nasdaq 100 while typically moving opposite to the MOVE index. This inverse relationship held throughout Bitcoin’s 2022 market crash and the subsequent bull run that began in 2023.
See also: Bitcoin vs Ethereum: Which Is the Better Investment Over 5–10 Years?
The falling Treasury volatility represents one of several factors supporting Bitcoin’s bull case. Fresh inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also contributed to positive momentum.
However, potential headwinds could emerge if geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalate. Additionally, delays or disappointment surrounding the Clarity Act, proposed cryptocurrency regulation legislation, could create market uncertainty.
Analysts caution that no single market signal guarantees future gains. Past performance does not ensure future results, and you should consider multiple factors when making investment decisions.
Plus, the relationship between Treasury volatility and cryptocurrency prices is still a key indicator to monitor.
As bond markets settle into calmer conditions, traders will be watching whether Bitcoin can sustain its upward momentum and reach six-figure valuations.
If you’re reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there by joining Dipprofit’s private Telegram community.
Discover more from Dipprofit
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
