EURUSD Free market analysis for week 21

EURUSD Free market analysis for week 21

This week’s free market analysis for Forex is on EURUSD.

Monthly Timeframe

• Trend: Bearish

• Key Resistance: 1.15403

• Key Support: 1.10864

Overview:
EUR/USD continues to maintain a long-term bearish trend that originated around July 2008. This downward movement has been defined by a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, signaling an overarching bearish structure on the monthly chart.

Weekly Timeframe

• Trend: Bullish

• Key Resistance: 1.15403

• Key Support: 1.10864

Overview:
On the weekly chart, the pair remains within a consolidation phase, trading between the 1.1265 and 1.1424 levels. A breakout above 1.1424 may open the path toward a retest of the 1.1572 zone. On the other hand, a breakdown below the 1.10864 support could hint at a potential continuation of the dominant bearish monthly trend. Currently, price action is attempting to move higher, with clear respect shown to the 1.10864 support level — previously a key resistance area.

Daily Timeframe

• Trend: Bullish

• Key Resistance: 1.15403

• Key Support: 1.10864

Overview:
The daily chart reveals a clear bullish structure that began in February 2025. Price broke through the resistance at 1.05724, advanced toward 1.10744, and subsequently cleared that level as well. The next area of resistance at 1.15403 has since acted as a barrier, temporarily halting further upside. Price is currently consolidating just below this level, suggesting a potential breakout or rejection in the coming sessions.

4-Hour Timeframe

• Trend: Bullish

• Key Resistance: 1.15403

• Key Support: 1.10864

Overview:
In the 4-hour timeframe, bullish momentum is evident following a strong rally off the 1.10864 support area. This upward move came after a notable sell-off from the 1.15403 resistance level. While buyers remain in control, price is still capped beneath the resistance zone, with short-term fluctuations likely until a breakout or reversal occurs.

Fundamental Analysis

• Eurozone:
  The European Central Bank (ECB) recently implemented a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to 2.25% in an effort to stimulate economic growth amid persistent external trade challenges. This dovish shift had been broadly anticipated by market participants.

• United States:
  The U.S. dollar has been under sustained pressure due to growing uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and the effects of recently imposed trade tariffs. While some U.S. macroeconomic data remains strong, the greenback’s weakness reflects broader investor caution.

• Impact on EUR/USD:
  The ECB’s rate cut appears largely priced into the market. The dollar’s softness, combined with limited euro downside follow-through, has helped support EUR/USD in recent sessions. As a result, the pair remains elevated near recent highs, with the euro showing relative strength.

Weekly Outlook & Trading Plan

• Bias: Neutral to Slightly Bullish

• Key Levels to Watch:

  • Support: 1.10864

  • Resistance: 1.15403

Expectations:
EURUSD signals a Bullish range and shows signs of longer time bullish continuation. A confirmed breakout above 1.15403 may offer further upside potential, targeting higher resistance levels. However, failure to clear that zone could lead to short-term pullbacks toward the 1.1265 or even 1.10864 support levels. The pair remains sensitive to both technical barriers and macroeconomic headlines, particularly from the ECB and the Federal Reserve.

Trading Approach:
Traders are advised to wait for confirmation of a breakout above resistance or a strong rejection before committing to directional trades. Intraday strategies should remain flexible, with careful attention to risk management, especially near the key support and resistance zones.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always use proper risk management and consult a qualified financial advisor before making trading decisions.

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